Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.014001 0.015870 0.017901 0.020273 0.022968 0.025939 0.029462
2025-04-20 0.011286 0.013903 0.016997 0.020929 0.025801 0.031649 0.039218
2025-04-27 0.009770 0.012735 0.016446 0.021442 0.028008 0.036367 0.047859
2025-05-04 0.008760 0.011959 0.016154 0.022073 0.030241 0.041159 0.056934
2025-05-11 0.007714 0.010956 0.015382 0.021887 0.031247 0.044296 0.063984
2025-05-18 0.006942 0.010215 0.014845 0.021904 0.032451 0.047721 0.071677
2025-05-25 0.006211 0.009437 0.014151 0.021580 0.033067 0.050279 0.078264
2025-06-01 0.005759 0.009016 0.013921 0.021893 0.034624 0.054326 0.087448
2025-06-08 0.005261 0.008465 0.013430 0.021734 0.035395 0.057182 0.094969
2025-06-15 0.004995 0.008253 0.013438 0.022352 0.037440 0.062208 0.106477
2025-06-22 0.004487 0.007594 0.012663 0.021599 0.037130 0.063309 0.111414
2025-06-29 0.004123 0.007143 0.012185 0.021294 0.037530 0.065607 0.118595
2025-07-06 0.003704 0.006564 0.011454 0.020502 0.037037 0.066367 0.123209
2025-07-13 0.003563 0.006464 0.011540 0.021167 0.039215 0.072067 0.137489
2025-07-20 0.003412 0.006329 0.011550 0.021686 0.041158 0.077496 0.151772
2025-07-27 0.003290 0.006235 0.011624 0.022324 0.043375 0.083619 0.167993
2025-08-03 0.003068 0.005933 0.011283 0.022136 0.043968 0.086664 0.178345
2025-08-10 0.002892 0.005703 0.011060 0.022153 0.044960 0.090563 0.190807
2025-08-17 0.002691 0.005407 0.010682 0.021825 0.045217 0.092995 0.200402
2025-08-24 0.002579 0.005279 0.010625 0.022142 0.046831 0.098340 0.216773
2025-08-31 0.002425 0.005053 0.010350 0.021981 0.047413 0.101563 0.228771
2025-09-07 0.002361 0.005008 0.010442 0.022606 0.049742 0.108721 0.250336
2025-09-14 0.002171 0.004679 0.009917 0.021845 0.048947 0.108969 0.255984